GCC Stock Trading Trends in 2026

Residential or commercial property prices have come under pressure after a period of strong growth, with current information from the Dubai Land Department revealing a drop in home mortgage transactions and money sales. We believe the danger of an enduring migrant outflow and a severe decline in the real estate sector is low.

As a long lasting US-Iran offer takes shape, the fallout from the dispute has actually tightened local monetary conditions, exposing vulnerabilities through capital outflows, wider bond spreads, and weaker financier belief. Many GCC sovereigns bring fairly little debt and funding risks are for that reason restricted in the UAE, the main bank's liquidity management has actually relieved instant issues.

That stated, Bahrain has been able to rely on support from neighbours, consisting of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and it successfully raised $1bn from an oversubscribed sovereign bond sale this month, marking the first offering from the region given that the war began. High-frequency fiscal information underscore the strain on local public financial resources from the dispute.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Driving Economic Success via Strategic Diversification

In Saudi Arabia, the deficit spending more than doubled to SAR125.7 bn, or about 9% of GDP in Q1, driven by a decline in oil earnings and a rise in costs, particularly on aids, showing contingency expenses tied to the local environment and an acceleration of Vision 2030 spending. In Qatar, the crisis brought oil and gas income to a stop, swelling the deficit spending to the largest given that 2017.

GCC inflation characteristics remain uneven, with food costs the primary source of upward pressure and inflation in this classification strengthening in Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. By contrast, food inflation stays fairly subdued in Saudi Arabia, likely showing the mitigating effect of its larger domestic food production base and higher supply-chain resilience.

We continue to view price pressures as mostly transitory instead of indicative of a sustained inflationary cycle. Accordingly, we expect average inflation to alleviate to 2.1% y/y in 2027 as momentary supply-side pressures dissipate. With near-term inflation raised and transit through the Strait most likely set to resume slowly, we expect the United States Federal Reserve to keep rates of interest on hold up until December, and local rate policies to do the same.

We anticipate Iran's GDP to shrink by 10.8% this year (we anticipate a 9.4% contraction three months ago). Oil production and exports, which supply necessary profits and FX inflows, have been reduced by the United States marine blockade, while non-oil activity has actually been significantly hit. In Iraq, oil exports have collapsed to a drip and we're forecasting GDP to contract by around 22% this year, with a sharp 33% rebound in 2027 as oil exports normalise.

By contrast, Syria continues to reintegrate into the global economy after more than a years of civil war. We anticipate GDP growth to average 9.6% over 2026-2027, supported by renewed financial investment, particularly in banking and energy, monetary reforms, and the progressive reopening of local trade links.

Essential Equity Market Insights for GCC Growth

The World Bank has slashed its 2026 growth projection for Middle East economies, stating overall GDP development in the area is anticipated to slow from an estimated 3.6% in January to 1.8% for 2026. The closure of the tactical Strait of Hormuz, and damage of energy and public facilities, had disrupted markets, increased financial volatility, and deteriorated the 2026 development outlook, the World Bank Group said in its Economic Update for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The April 2026 World Bank's Macro Poverty Outlook forecasts that the region's aggregate (omitting the Iran) GDP growth will decelerate to 1.8 percent in 2026, down from 4.0 percent approximated for 2025. The 2026 forecast has actually been reduced by 2.4 percentage points given that the January projections, reflecting the adverse results of the ongoing dispute.

Saudi Arabia: Projection was reduced by 1.2 portion points because January. Growth is now expected to slow from 4.3% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, keeping in mind that Saudi Arabia's outlook stays the greatest among Gulf economies. United Arab Emirates: Growth projection for the UAE has actually fallen by 2.7 portion points since January.

Qatar: Significantly, development forecast for the Qatari economy has actually seen a sharp decrease of 11.0 portion points given that January. The economy is now anticipated to record a contraction of 5.7%, below an estimated growth of 5.3%, due to severe blockage to liquefied gas supplies. Qatar is a key player in the international energy market, with a global market share of liquefied gas (LNG) products varying in between 20% and 21%.

Kuwait relies totally (100%) on the Strait of Hormuz to export its petroleum and derivatives. Closing the strait would mean a total shutdown of the nation's financial lifeline, immediately halting earnings inflows to the state spending plan. Bahrain: Development forecast for Bahrain's economy has actually decreased by 1.8 portion points since January.